What to Expect in 2010:

Stay tuned in the months to come for coverage on these developments in the Latin American region:

• ·         Elections in Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Colombia, and Brazil – will the populist trend of 2009 hold or has economic crisis shifted nations to the right?

• ·         The Colombia-Venezuela border crisis and its effect on rearmament

• ·         Journalistic freedoms in 2010 – were the 2009 media censures in Ecuador and Venezuela sign of new policies or political distractions?

• ·         Climate change

• ·         Indigenous rights and civic liberties across the region

• ·         US-LatAm relations following support of the Honduran coup, criticism on Iran, and the Colombian military base agreement

• ·         China’s ASEAN Free Trade deal and its economic implications for Latin American partners

As ever, we thank you for your continued readership and we hope you enjoy!

Special Report:

Latin American Aid To Earthquake-Hit Haiti

Recent regional bickering was put on hold this week, as nations from across Latin America responded in unison to the earthquake devastation in Haiti, the Telesur television network reports.  The earthquake, which measured 7 degrees on the Richter scale and is the strongest in that country’s history for some 200 years, ravaged the capital Port-au-Prince, as well as other outlying areas, in a matter of seconds.   As of January 14, the Red Cross estimates the loss of life to be around 50,000.  Cuban medical forces were dispatched almost immediately following the disaster – the island nation’s medical brigade has special experience in natural disaster situations and treated more than 1,000 patients at its field hospital outside Port-au-Prince within the first two days.  Bordering Dominican Republic soon responded with its own ambulances and medical teams.  Help from these close island neighbors will no doubt prove essential in the coming days, as airborne aid trickles in from elsewhere – although not for want of being sent. 

With global response to the disaster at its strongest since the 2004 Indonesian tsunami, Port-au-Prince’s small international airport finds itself overwhelmed.  Unprecedented traffic is delaying deliveries and stalling relief efforts.  Meanwhile, gas shortages are preventing planes from refueling, and inbound aircraft must carry enough for the return.  Without electricity, the control towers are shut down as well.  For now, the US military is providing air traffic control as part of an initial national relief response that should exceed $100 million.  In addition to supplies and troops, the US’ contribution of logistical support will prove most important, if the massive global effort hopes to address the increasingly dire situation on the ground.

Among the aid expected to reach Haiti from its Latin American neighbors are Brazilian food stuffs, rescue dog teams from Mexico, Bolivian volunteers, Venezuelan doctors, and medical supplies from Chile.  Various maritime companies are also looking to relieve air traffic by finding shipping solutions that circumvent hurdles like flooded ports, missing loading cranes, and altered harbor floors.

Economy & Politics

Brazil: Lula Fights Controversy over Human Rights Truth Commission

Following success on the international front with a strong performance at the Copenhagen Climate Talks this past December, Brazilian President Lula da Silva is starting 2010 embroiled in a political crisis at home, as members of his own government threaten to resign over a planned truth commission on human rights abuses, according to UPI.  The proposed public probe is designed to look into every detail of the offenses committed by the military dictatorships, spanning from 1964 to 1985.  While in power, the military is suspected of having killed 400 political activists and tortured another 20,000 people. 

According to local newspaper sources, however, Defense Minister Nelson Jobim, along with commanders of the air force, army, and navy, are opposing the National Commission of Truth (part of Lula da Silva’s Human Rights National Program), on account of the fact that those found guilty would not be protected under the 1979 Amnesty Law.  They also argue that the commission fails to examine actions against the military committed by armed left-wing forces.  Consequently, Jobim and the commanders submitted their resignations late December, which Lula da Silva rejected, promising that part of the bill would be rewritten by this summer.  Still, the President now finds himself caught between the military, his cabinet (among which several members belong to the tortured in question), and pressure from his citizens and human rights groups. After his impassioned speech earlier last month, which insisted that Brazil “must turn our disappeared companions into heroes and reaffirm they are not with us because they fought for a better world,” the president will have a difficult time meeting his own set expectations without political backlash from one corner or the other.

Amnesty, according to a December report in the Christian Science Monitor, is the issue that lies at the heart of much controversy in these recent Latin American truth commissions.  Brazil’s 1979 Amnesty Law is an example of the common compromise previous governments reached with their militaries, offering protection from prosecution in return for relinquishing power.  But decades removed from these laws, created under dictatorial regimes, countries like Argentina, Brazil, and Chile are reconsidering the price of this compromise.  Although Brazil is only now addressing it, Chile revoked the Pinochet-era law in the 1990s, while Argentina voted its amnesty laws from the 1980s unconstitutional in 2005.  On top of the progress achieved in both countries, Chile has vowed to investigate new cases under the National Commission on Political Imprisonment and Torture, once presidential elections are concluded on January 17^th.  Argentina, meanwhile, brought 19 officials from ESMA to court just this December – ESMA, the Naval Mechanics School, was instrumental in the fatal abductions of Argentina’s 5000 “disappeared” during the 1970s. 

Bolivia: Re-elected President Morales Rings in 2010 with Ambitious Agenda

Only one month after a landslide re-election, leftist Bolivian President Evo Morales is wasting no time living up to his ambitious, albeit controversial reputation, by ringing in the New Year with changes that affect everything from drug policy and indigenous rights to climate change and government corruption. 

For starters, in late December, Morales announced that his government would legalize the growing of coca plants on small parcels, extending the limit of legal coca cultivation from 12,000 hectares to 20,000 (Associated Press).  Morales, himself the head of a coca growers association, has long contended that the coca leaf is central to indigenous culture and part of Bolivian patrimony.  In the past year, Bolivia expelled agents of the US Drug Enforcement Agency from the country, partly to prove its autonomy on this issue.  And this January, the new Bolivian constitution promoted leaders of various indigenous groups to the legislative assembly, for the first time in 200 years.  In addition to boosting approval ratings, the move thrusts indigenous concerns like land rights and cultivation to the foreground.  The Minister of Health is already launching a $10 million ‘ancestral medicine’ pharmacy project, in recognition of the true needs of the Bolivian population.

With legalization and indigenous support in place, Morales proceeded by promoting the new coca leaves-based soft drink, “Coca-Colla”.  The Buenos Aires Herald reported that the leaves will be grown in the Cochabamba Tropics, where most of Bolivia’s current illegal coca cultivation takes place.  However, the newspaper did not specify whether this new venture simply exploits the region’s productivity, or is a state-endorsed effort to offer farmers legal means of income.  Contrary to how the push for coca cultivation might appear, Bolivia’s anti-drug laws are in fact quite strict, limiting coca use to chewing, tea drinking, and medicinal purposes. 

Cochabamba is, coincidentally, also to be venue of Morales’ recently announced World Summit for Climate Change.  Scheduled for the third week of April, the alternative climate summit is a direct response to the non-binding COP15 agreement, which remains ambiguous over the financial responsibility of rich nations to the climate crisis.  During Copenhagen, Morales went on record as saying that industrialized nations owed developing nations billions in climate-change reparations, and advocated the creation of a “climate justice tribunal” (Dow Jones).  Those may be strong words, but to be fair, Bolivia has a right to be a little put out.  Despite being largely rural and lacking major industry, Andean Bolivia faces an environmental disaster, as its glaciers continue to melt away, cutting off water supplies and electricity to millions.   According to a World Bank report cited in the New York Times this past month, climate change threatens to eliminate the Andes’ glaciers within the next twenty years and affect the existence of 100 million people.

But ever the pragmatist, Morales has also made other energy inroads over the course of the month, signing a long-awaited agreement with Brazil for natural gas exports worth $1.2 billion and lasting into 2019.  The populist president also recently proposed an anti-corruption law that requires anyone with “sudden” wealth to make their acquisitions public.  His many efforts have not gone unnoticed either, with US officials looking to re-launch ties in 2010 (Xinhua).  All in all, a busy month that no doubt signals an eventful second term.

Media:

Colombia: Mobile Phones Deter Kidnapping

The expansion of mobile phones in Colombia could be partly responsible for the drop in kidnapping rates over the past ten years, according to a recent University of the Andes study examined by The Economist this month.  Colombian kidnappings have over the years been frequent, largely politically motivated, and more often than not perpetrated by left-wing guerillas, right-wing paramilitaries, and drug cartels.  The nineties were a particular dangerous period, with kidnappings spiking near the end of the millennium to 3572 in 2000.  But after so much intense activity, they dropped off dramatically.  Experts attribute this to the beginning of Alvaro Uribe’s presidency in 2002, which signaled a significant increase in security.   According to The Economist, forces were bolstered that year from 307,000 to 405,000 members, and deployed to some 160 hitherto un-policed municipalities throughout the country.  But even so, that does not account for a two-year period between 2000 and Uribe’s ascendancy, during which people seemed to have taken matters into their own hands, literally.

Santiago Montero and Alvaro Pedraza’s university study proposes that the expansion of mobile phones at the start of the 2000s directly affected kidnapping rates, in that it enabled victims and witnesses to alert police to the crimes at unprecedented speed, making officials much more efficient at stopping them.  With the rise in security forces, the access to mobile phones has proven an even more effective deterrent.  Add to this the Colombian army’s success in driving FARC forces to remote areas, breaking the transporting flow that conveyed victims from cities to FARC units, and the rate now stands at a much lower (though still considerable) 172 victims (Jan-Oct 2009, according to Colombian Police stats.) 

Of course, mobile phone penetration cannot be a cure all, as rising kidnapping rates in Mexico and Venezuela prove.  They must be complemented by effective policing.  Still, it will be interesting to see what effect, in terms of security and economic independence, the steady rise in mobile phone usage has on the region in the years to come. As it stands, what regards mobile broadband, the Americas market is expected to expand to seven times its current size by 2013 (The Broadband Finder).   In South America, 90% of these users are pre-pay subscribers.  Contrary to traditional postpaid billing subscribers, such customers require neither credit nor permanent residence, etc.  And although these factors might at first seem to indicate an inconsistent market, they are - in light of the immense projected growth – more likely a reflection of Latin America’s drive towards connectivity, information, and networking.  An unflagging drive, taking clever detours past economic and geographical challenges. 

Tourism:

Mexico: Gay Marriage to Boost Tourism

Mexico City’s landmark decision to recognize gay marriage this past December is already being viewed in some corners as a potential boon to the city’s slowly recovering tourism industry, according to a recent report by the Press Association.  In an interview following the decision, Alejandro Rojas, Mexico City’s tourism secretary, claimed that the ruling will make the Mexican capital a “vanguard city”, where “people from all over the world will be able to come and have their wedding, and spend their honeymoon here.”  Although the same-sex unions stand the risk of not being recognized abroad, save in the seven countries and a handful of US states that allow them, Rojas is already in talks with travel agents to develop wedding packages, in the hopes of rivaling Venice and San Francisco as a leader in the gay travel market sector.  Currently, the annual impact of gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender travel within the US alone amounts to roughly $70 million.  After a devastating tourism year for Mexico, officials are eager to explore this largely untapped market. 

Apart from its implications on the city’s revenue, the ruling is undoubtedly a great milestone for civil liberties in Latin America.  Furthermore, it looks as though the strong opposition from conservative and religious groups, which has managed to reverse similar past rulings in the US, will have little sway on Major Marcelo Ebrard, who is expected to sign same-sex marriage into law in March.  This will mark Mexico as the first country in Latin America to officially legalize gay marriage, although technically, Latin America’s first gay wedding has already taken place. 

The same-sex Buenos Aires couple who were granted a marriage license in November and planned to marry on World AIDS Day on December 1^st, were blocked on the eve of their wedding, but received special permission from the governor of Tierra del Fuego later that month.  They were married on December 28^th in the southern province.   The ruling on their same-sex marriage license, which was expected to open the doors to full legalization in the Argentine capital, and possible inject some welcome tourism dollars there as well, appears to have suffered at the hands of officials and public opinion.  More than 60% of Argentines oppose it (LifeStyleNews.com).   

Chile: Tourism Going Back to Its Roots

In 2010, a visit to Chile may entail going back to the country’s roots, in every sense of the word, as native tribes bank on the little explored concept of “medicinal plant” tourism with a new interpretive nature trail in southern Chile, reports the Santiago Times.  It seems the Huilliche, a branch of the Mapuche that resides in Chilean Patagonia, has installed this 3 km-long interpretive trail for medicinal plants in the Magellan Forest Reserve, outside Punta Arenas, as a way of introducing outsiders to the many facets of their ancestral medicine.  The plants on display are purported to cure every ailment from anxiety to rheumatic diseases; in fact, ten of the species along the trail are recognized by Chile’s Ministry of Health, while many more are being researched.  The trail also features health workshops, where visitors can purchase plants and learn to apply them. 

For those who wish to look towards the sky, however, Chile will offer the perfect star-gazing seat come this summer, when the upcoming solar eclipse’s path of totality passes over the South Pacific and lower parts of Patagonia.  While ocean cruises are already being booked to capacity, Tierra del Fuego and Easter Island promise to be among the best land-viewing locations.  To add another level of mystic significance to the already momentous occasion, the Chilean tourism industry is promoting Easter Island wedding ceremonies this year.  The Polynesian ceremonies are replete with dancers and tropical flowers, while couples are garbed in traditional feather gowns, leaf loincloths, and body paint.  Island elders (koro) are expected to perform the ancestral rites in the Rapanui language to complete the cultural experience.

But where the idea of getting married among archaeological mysteries on the most remote island in the world does have its adventurer appeal, the question remains of what the impact of higher visitor numbers, such as are expected this July, will be on an already fragile ecosystem and a struggling local population.  According to a report in USA Today, tourism has served in some positive degree to reverse the devastating effects of Chilean colonialism, which included the decimation of Rapa Nui’s Polynesian peoples by imported diseases and a systemic suppression of local culture that nearly wiped out all oral traditions.  In recent decades, tourism interest in the island has seen a resurgence in the support for local heritage, new museums, and schools, not to mention income for islanders themselves.  Yet locals worry that mass tourism will commercialize their culture.  There is also the matter of the ecological impact.  Although 60% of the World Heritage Site island has restricted access as a historic preserve, trees are dwindling and many bird species are close to extinction.  The first luxury hotel opened in 2008 and weekly flights to Rapa Nui do little to alleviate the human impact.

However one looks at it, Chile and its islands are an exercise in juxtaposing the ancient and modern.  Early this January, Knut Haugland passed away -  the last surviving crew member of the 1940’s Kon-Tiki expedition, which sought to prove that ancient South Americans could have  reached and populated the South Pacific.  Today, the strenuous efforts by Thor Heyerdahl and his crew seem in vain, as DNA studies clearly show that Rapa Nui inhabitants are indeed of Maori descent, and not Incas at all.  But the spiritual journey is the real draw, one which will have tourists continue to explore Rapa Nui for themselves. Except perhaps not in a balsa raft.  In fact, with Santiago’s Arturo Merino Benitez International Airport boasting a 92.5% “on time” departure rate (Chilean Airline Association), travelling back in history to Easter Island, or Patagonia, for that matter, is sinfully easy.

Cultural Interest:

Paraguay: Free Health Care for Everyone

The Paraguayan government toasted the holiday season with a presidential decree that establishes free public health services throughout the country, reported the IPS recently.  According to the report, Paraguay’s previous system required that those who could not afford private coverage or qualify for health care provided by the social security institute, choose the public health care system.  Public clinics charged patients taxes, doctors fees, prescriptions, etc, to say nothing of unreliable staff and poor patient care.  In a country where more than 50% live in borderline to abject poverty, this meant that some 40% of Paraguayans had no access to any health care.

The new program, introduced by President Fernando Lugo, a former Catholic Bishop, makes health care available to the most indigent sections of the country by eliminating taxes, as well as fees for consultations, hospital stays, diagnostic services, and medicines.  Launched on December 25^th, the measure will cost around $6 million a year, in addition to the current health care budget.  But experts and government officials both agree that to insure the prolonged success of the program, many more reforms are needed, from general patient care to tax reform and fiscal policy. 

For all this philanthropy, President Lugo does have his detractors, particularly as his election put an end to 60 years of conservative Colorado Party control.  This January, following the Supreme Court’s controversial reinstatement of two dismissed Colorado Party judges, Paraguayan deputy Desiree Masi accused former general Lino Oviedo of planning a coup to topple Lugo’s  government (Ultima Hora).  While Masi prepares to present her case, Lugo faces troubles on the personal front – he has agreed to a DNA test in his third love-child case since April.