December 1, 2009        www.LatinEPR.com 

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Dear Friends and Colleagues,

Writing the 2010 Forecast below, it occurs to me that everyone will be reading similar headlines this month, wanting nothing more than to hurry into the new year.  It’s funny, as we are usually guilty of bemoaning the passage of time! 

We shake our heads at the speed with which our lives seems to pass us by, smile ironically at the flurry of cell phone rings and blackberry emails and text messages that compose our daily routines, because despite our modern contrivances, we desperately want to draw out moments, to seize the day, to hang on to growing children and aging parents, to innocence and youth.

2009 seems to inspire in us the opposite – we want time to fly by, to hurry us through economic crises and foreclosures, through budgets cuts and redundancies, through flues and global warming.  We hope that someday soon, we come out on the other end, with our home, our work, and our sanity intact.

But out of the hardships of this year also come victories – our resiliency, our sense of community, and our capacity for resolving problems that seemed beyond our grasp.  As I write this, global leaders are finally tackling climate change.  A historic president receives the international accolades of the Nobel Peace Prize.  Consumer spending is on the rise.  And strides in sustainable tourism prove that our industry values culture, the environment, and indigenous communities, as much as the market itself.

Rest assured that we take the spirit of this optimism into 2010. With that in mind, turn off those cell phones.  Put those text messages on hold, and enjoy a well-deserved moment of peace and reflection with family and friends. 

Happy holidays from us at LatinEPR, and may all your wishes for 2010 come true!

Best regards,

Carola Perla

Editor, LatinEPR Newsletter

Carola Perla, Editor

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LATIN AMERICA - NEWS BRIEFS

2010 FORECAST

4.1% Economic Growth for Latin America Signals 2010 Recovery

The worst of the economic crisis is over in Latin America, according to the U.N.’s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), which in December announced its forecast of 4.1% growth for the region in 2010.  Head of ECLAC, Alicia Barcena, who recently spoke with the Wall Street Journal, explained that large fiscal stimulus packages  - equaling some 2% of the region’s GDP – were partly responsible for creating a much faster than expected turnaround, therein surpassing the previously projections of a 3.1% growth rate for 2010.  These packages also helped curb the contraction rate for 2009, now expected to hold at 1.8%, as opposed to the previously projected 1.9%. 

South America, in particular, according to Barcena, has proved equipped to deal with this latest crisis better than with previous ones, thanks to six years of steady growth, external account surpluses, and improvements in public finances.  The latter has, in turn, led to lower public debt and higher international reserves.  Not surprisingly, South America shows the most noticeable projected growth, not only within the region but also on a global level, with 4.7%.  Here, Brazil leads with 5.5%, followed by Peru and Uruguay, each posting a projected rate of 5%. 

While Central America is also expected to perform well, posting a projected growth rate of 3%,  countries more closely linked to the US in exports and services, like Mexico and those within the Caribbean, could face a longer road to recovery.  Mexico, for example, contracted approximately 6.7% in 2009, largely in response to the US economy shrinking 2.5%.  In 2010, Mexico is expected to rebound by 3.5%, which is stronger than the US’s 2% rate, but still lags behind the recoveries of South American counterparts. 

Overall, the recovery rates are welcome news, particularly as they concern the Latin American job market and inflation.  According to Barcena, economic improvements will help unemployment shrink from 8.3% this year to 8% in 2010, while inflation, which fell from 8% in 2008 to 4% in 2009, should cease to be a serious concern in the upcoming months, except in Venezuela.

Note: LatinEPR would like to congratulate Alicia Barcena, head of ECLAC, for being named Mexico’s 2009 Woman of the Year, awarded this December.  Barcena previously served as acting Cabinet Chief for UN General Secretary Kofi Annan, and has held the position of ECLAC executive secretary since 2008.  Barcena is recognized for her international efforts to promote sustainable development, address climate change, and solving energy security in the region.  

MEDIA

2010 Census Board Teams With Latin American Consuls

Officials of the 2010 Census have impressed the importance of being counted, irrespective of immigrant status, by working together with consuls of several Latin American countries, Hoy newspaper recently reported. Promoters of the 2010 Census have been facing an uphill battle within immigrant communities, as many of those who live in the US undocumented fear that participation with put them at risk to be deported.  Officials are thus going through great length to ensure everyone of the census’ confidentiality, including meeting with representatives from nations throughout Latin America to deliver their message.  Thus far, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador are cooperating, particularly because the census would allow them to have a better grasp on just how many of their nationals live abroad.  The census numbers not only equips these nations to better defend the rights of their citizens, they help shape the kind of federal assistance local US communities receive.  Other countries the 2010 Census Board is meeting with include Argentina, Spain, Bolivia, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic.

TOURISM

Puerto Rico and Brazil: Culture and Sport Shape Tourism Agendas

In the 1950’s, when Puerto Rico’s tourism board hired obscure photographer Elliot Erwitt to shoot beautiful island scenes for their advertising billboards, they could hardly have imagined that so many decades later, they would be calling on Erwitt to shoot once more.  Or that Erwitt’s name would in fact be the major selling point of their 21^st century tourism campaign.  But with Erwitt having garnered international acclaim since first working for Puerto Rico, the photographer’s name now carries serious cultural value, one the island’s tourism board is banking on.

“Elliot Erwin’s Puerto Rico” is the new $10 million tourism campaign, intended to hark back to the romance of his iconic fifties photos, but moreover to distinguish the island nation from the “fun in the sun” images of its regional competitors.  The new Erwitt photos are meant to define Puerto Rico as a cultural destination, featuring in addition to expected beach scenes, also the country’s historic architecture, its rainforest, and what Governor Luis Fostuno refers to as “the heart and soul of … its people.” 

The cultural angle of this campaign reflects the growing trend of “cultural industries.”  Only this past year, the Latin American & Caribbean Economic System (SELA) convened a forum in Caracas to discuss the protection of folklore, tradition, genetic resources, and their place within the marketplace.  According to figures from OpEd News, cultural industries had a global value of $900 billion in 2000, but have since come to approach $2 trillion.  Cultural industries not only include the customs and historical patrimony which drive cultural tourism, such as archaeological sites, artisanal products, and cuisine, but all types of domestically produced media – art, photography, music, literature, television.  And increasingly, sport. 

Indeed, sports tourism is currently in the limelight.  For example, the Caribbean Tourism Organization, along with the Caribbean Development Bank, the Caribbean Association of National Olympic Committees, and other similar entities will meet this December in Barbados to discuss the importance and future of sport tourism – a sector revitalized with the Cricket World Cup West Indies 2007, which sparked massive infrastructure development in the region and boosted tourism.   Down in South America, the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil and the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Summer Olympics Games promise to prove invaluable machines for infrastructure development, foreign investment, and tourism growth, as well.  Already, TAP Portugal, voted World’s Leading Airline to South America at the World Travel Awards in London last month, is working to increase its links to sport tourism ahead of these competitions, by partnering with World Sport Destination Expo.

With all eyes on the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa this summer, it seems unlikely that this interest in sporting events, and cultural resources on the whole, will abate. 

LAN Bolstered by 10% Growth, Plans 2010 Expansions

A projected 10% increase in passenger traffic for 2010 has Chilean-based airline LAN looking to expand its reach in South America, the air carrier recently announced.  With regional economies and the airline industry slowly recuperating, the company is considering amplifying the $1.4 billion it has earmarked for investment towards fleet renewal in 2009-2011.  LAN may even see internal restructuring in the coming year, with part owner Chilean billionaire Sebastian Pinera currently running for  president.  In April 2009, Pinera announced that should his bid for office prove successful, he would likely sell part of his stake to the Cueto family, which controls the majority of the airline.  In addition to these changes, LAN could begin shopping for mergers north of Ecuador and follow in the footsteps of the recent Avianca-Taca partnership, approved in Colombia this December.  Factors that could deter LAN include an ailing cargo market and possible rises in oil prices. 

ECONOMY AND POLITICS

Brazil at the Center of Climate Talks in Copenhagen

This December, Brazil – keeper of the world’s most important environmental resource, the Amazon forest - found itself in the international spotlight, as nations met in Copenhagen for crucial climate talks that will likely determine the direction of the fight against global warming for the next several decades.  Before the conference, Brazil had already asserted its position, pledging to cut emission 38.5% by 2020, and urging the US and China to take on more responsibility.  President Lula da Silva consequently met with French leader Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris to strategize a common position on climate change, that includes the creation of a World Environmental Organization. 

But Brazil’s largest impact on the conference may yet be its plan to curb deforestation, co-sponsored by Norway and endorsed by the US.  According to the Environment News Service, President Obama in November cautioned that his participation was contingent upon the conference’s ability to achieve agreements.  What regards the Brazil-Norway Amazon deforestation agenda, his endorsement signals possibility of success.  Partly-funded by the Prince of Wales Rainforest Project (REDD), the Brazil-Norway plan proposes a scheme for effectively limiting deforestation by using cutting-edge methods of surveillance and working with local communities.  Among these methods of surveillance is a prototype technology of online satellite observation of the Earth’s forests.  The satellite observation method is not only comprehensive but cost effective. 

Furthermore, Brazil has included plans to deal with its domestic cattle ranching, one of the main culprits of destruction to the rainforest.  The agricultural ministry of Brazil pledges to monitor the country’s 15,000 cattle ranches, many of which exist on cleared land, by using satellite imagery and introducing punitive measures, such as suspending slaughterhouse transport licenses for ranches that claim forest land.  Apart from destroying forests, cattle ranching also contributes 75% of Brazil’s carbon emissions through slash/burning; not to mention the methane gas emitted by the cows themselves.

Despite these pledges from Brazil, the overall success of the Copenhagen climate talks depends on the currently unfolding second week.  Among the main issues of contention to still be resolved is finance.  Although European countries have committed upwards of $3 billion towards climate initiatives, US and China – the world’s major polluters – are holding back, in the fear that their money will somehow end up in the other’s coffers.  And that is exactly the kind of incentive and leadership that will help poorer developing nations embrace their own role in environmental protection – or is it?

Third Party Intervention Planned for Venezuela-Colombia Border Crisis

Dominican President Leonel Fernandez announced in Paris this week, that he will mediate in the escalating dispute between Colombia and Venezuela, according to the Latin American Herald Tribune.  The military base deal between Colombia and the US, signed in October, lies at the heart of a border conflict, with Venezuela regarding US presence as a threat to its national security.  Venezuela has threatened to suspend trade with Colombia if it does not cancel the deal, going on to militarize its borders in recent weeks and bombing border bridges it considered drug trafficking and insurgency corridors. 

For now, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez continues to insist that this conflict could lead to a war that will last for a century and spread throughout the continent.  Although this could be dismissed as part of Chavez’ customary rhetoric, it is clear that third-party mediation has become imperative – even the recent Mercosur conference could not offer enough of an unbiased arena for representatives of the two countries to meet one on one.

But despite how their leaders are handling this dispute, neither Colombians nor Venezuelans are supportive of military action against their neighbors.  80% of Colombians are against it, while possibility of war, coupled with a declining GDP and growing inflation, has eroded Chavez support among his citizens – his approval rating in October dropped to 46%, down from 53% a month earlier.

In perhaps the most poignant display of unity, Catholic priests from Venezuela joined their Colombian counterparts in the Colombian city of Cucuta in November to play a ‘peace and friendship’ football match.  Fans engaged in religious chanting to support their teams, which tied 2-2 at the end of the day.  Colombian radio Caracol quotes Bishop Jaime Prieto Amaya as saying, “the game demonstrated that nothing could cause war between the peoples that share so much in common.”

GENERAL INTEREST AND CULTURE

Buenos Aires Grants First Same-Sex Marriage License

Latin America’s first gay marriage was sanctioned this December in Argentina, after a Buenos Aires judge ruled the ban on gay marriage unconstitutional, the Associated Press recently reported.  Rather than being appealed, the ruling is expected to set off a series of potential changes in Argentina’s civil codes, which already broke ground in 2002 by allowing same-sex civil unions.  Mexico, Uruguay, and Spain followed, but marriage has long faced opposition from the Roman Catholic Church and other Christian groups.  Now that the proposal for same-sex marriage enjoys support among ruling party lawmakers, Argentina might indeed make civil rights history once more.  The couple who sparked this development by suing the government after the courts rejected their petition for a marriage license, are executives for the Buenos Aires Aids Foundation and the Argentine Red Cross, and plan to marry on World AIDS Day.